Chair's Address to Shareholders and Presentation
Released
Released
Announcement PDF
ASX Announcement
For Immediate Release
14 May 2024
Chairman’s Address and Company Presentation Material
2024 Annual General Meeting
Please find attached to this document a copy of the Chairman’s address and the presentation that will be
provided by Australis Oil & Gas Limited today at its Annual General Meeting.
This ASX announcement was authorised for release by the Australis Disclosure Committee.
For further information, please contact either:
Ian Lusted
Managing Director
Australis Oil & Gas Limited
+61 8 9220 8700
Graham Dowland
Finance Director
Australis Oil & Gas Limited
+61 8 9220 8700
A UST RA LI S O I L & GA S LI MI T E D
ABN 34 609 262 937
Ground Floor, 215 Hay Street Subiaco WA 6008 • PO Box 8225 Subiaco East WA 6008
T +61 (8) 9220 8700 • F +61 (8) 9220 8799
www.australisoil.com
Chairman’s Address – 2024 Annual General Meeting
Welcome to the 2024 AGM of Australis Oil & Gas. Thank you to those in attendance today whether in person
or online.
Last year I referenced the timeframe for delivery of the returns we seek for investors as being longer than
expected. Unfortunately, I have to repeat that message, albeit not for want of effort from our team. Our CEO
Ian Lusted will address activities and business development in more detail in his presentation following the
procedural elements of the AGM.
During the past year we have sought to balance the maintenance of our ownership and control of our key
asset with strict management of finances, whilst strategically remaining focused on securing third party
engagement.
The level and nature of third-party engagement during the past year has been broad and consistently
encouraging yet ultimately frustrating. We continue to discuss cooperation scenarios with several third-parties
and will report progress as and when appropriate.
We are grateful for your patience in the realisation of our objectives. We will continue to work hard to deliver
the value we see in our asset base.
On behalf of the Board and shareholders, I would like to thank our management and employees both in
Australia and the US who during the past year have continued to demonstrate their commitment,
professionalism and skill. Further, many within our team have been prepared to sacrifice remuneration with a
view to ultimate corporate success. This is much appreciated. Our executive team and staff, even with
reduced numbers, have continued to execute operations efficiently and safely.
We remain optimistic that the coming year will be one of progress and I can assure you that we will continue
to work diligently towards our objectives on your behalf.
Jon Stewart
Chairman
ASX: ATS
2024 AGM Presentation
14 May 2024
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Australis Oil & Gas Limited ACN 609 262 937 (ASX: ATS) (Australis).
Summary of information: This presentation contains general and background information about Australis’ activities current as at the date of the presentation and should not be
considered to be comprehensive or to comprise all the information that an investor should consider when making an investment decision. The information is provided in summary
form, has not been independently verified, and should not be considered to be comprehensive or complete. The information in this presentation remains subject to change without
notice. Australis is not responsible for providing updated information and assumes no responsibility to do so.
Not financial product advice: This presentation is not financial product, investment advice or a recommendation to acquire Australis securities and has been prepared without taking
into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the
information having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek legal, taxation and financial advice appropriate to their jurisdiction and circumstances.
Australis is not licensed to provide financial product advice in respect of its securities or any other financial products. Cooling off rights do not apply to the acquisition of Australis
securities. Australis assumes that the recipient is capable of making its own independent assessment, without reliance on this document, of the information and any potential
investment and will conduct its own investigation.
Disclaimer: Australis and its related bodies corporate and each of their respective directors, agents, officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaim, to the maximum extent
permitted by law, all liabilities (however caused, including negligence) in respect of, make no representations regarding, and take no responsibility for, any part of this presentation
and make no representation or warranty as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information, statements, opinions, conclusions or representations contained in
this presentation. In particular, this presentation does not constitute, and shall not be relied upon as, a promise, representation, warranty or guarantee as to the past, present or the
future performance of Australis.
Future performance: This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements and opinion. Generally, words such as “anticipates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”,
“seeks”, “estimates”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements, opinion and estimates provided in this
presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on
interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements, including projections, forecasts and estimates, are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied
on as an indication or guarantee of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Australis. Past
performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and no representation or warranty is made as to the likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any forward-looking
statements or other forecast.
Not an offer: This presentation is for information purposes only. This presentation is not, and should not be considered as, an offer or an invitation to acquire securities in Australis or
any other financial products and neither this document nor any of its contents will form the basis of any contract or commitment. This presentation is not a prospectus and does not
contain all the information which would be required to be contained in a prospectus. Offers of securities in Australis will only be made in places in which, or to persons to whom it
would be lawful to make such offers. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Australis.
No Distribution in the US: This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities of Australis are not registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as
amended (the "US Securities Act") and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration under the US Securities Act. No public
offer of the securities is being made in the United States and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States.
Monetary values: Unless otherwise stated, all dollar values are in United States Dollars (US$). The information in this presentation remains subject to change without notice.
2
2023 ESG and Financial
results
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE IN THE US
3
ESG summary - 2023
Australis reported another year of safe operations and reduced emissions
Employee Safety Performance
Strong safety culture for field operators resulted in
another exemplary performance with no safety
incidents over 4,194 workdays.
2023
2022
Near Miss
1
0
First Aid
0
1
OSHA Reportable
0
0
Lost Time Incidents
0
0
33,550
38,657
2023
2022
Non reportable spillA
4
4
Reportable spillA
1
2
Oil volume spilled within
containment (bbls)
0
1.6
Piloting power generation for use during field
development phase.
Oil volume spilled outside
containment (bbls)
1.2
3.7
Full field development offers opportunities to reduce
gas emissions through export or onsite utilisation.
Produced water spilled (bbls)
6
0
Scope 1 emissions (mt CO2e)
21,591
26,000
Scope 1 intensity (mt CO2e/boe)
0.069
0.064
Proactive Safety Observation Suggestion (SOS)
program continues to operate effectively and the key
tool to maintain culture.
Another strong environmental performance, one small
reportable oil leak (~1.2 bbl) during the year with no
volumes released off the production pads.
Reported Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions under TCFD
framework in 2022 & 2023.
Scope 1 emissions largely due to gas flaring – field
total 0.67 mmscf/d over 20 separate locations.
Hours worked
Environmental Performance
A. Reportable threshold > 1bbl oil and/or >5 bbls produced water
4
Fiscal summary 2023
Solid 2023 fiscal performance continues to support strategic objectives
Financial results
Strong fiscal results during 2023
Units
2023
Bbls
277,000
Sales Volume
Net Debt at $4.2 million at 31 December
2023
Average Realised PriceA
US$/bbl
78
Average Achieved PriceB
US$/bbl
75
Producing wells independent value YE23
US$47 million (NPV10)2
Sales Revenue (post hedges)
US$MM
20.7
EBITDA
US$MM
1.0
2023 field netback of US$7.5 million
Cash Balance (period end)
US$MM
3.8
Total Debt (period end)
US$MM
8
Hedge Position from end Q1 2024
WTI Swaps
Conservative hedge position adopted in
Q1 2024 for next 24 months in line with
debt coverage.
WTI Collars
Volume
(Mbbls)
Swap
Price
(US$/bbl)
Volume
(Mbbls)
Protected
Price
(US$/bbl)
Ceiling
Price
(US$/bbl)
Q2-Q4 2024
71
$71
42
$55
$84
2025
69
$67
24
$49
$81
2026
18
$62
0
na
na
A. Average oil sales price realised by Australis
B. Average oil price achieved by Australis after the effects of hedging
5
2023 Operating Costs
Our focus has been on operated costs
Australis as a small operator, active in an area that remote to the major oil field service centers. Access to
services and longer lead times can add to cost price pressure.
− Overall Opex has been maintained through 2021 – 2023.
− Fixed costs were reduced but variable costs (primarily third party) increased across the industry.
− Workover frequency maintained
6
Driving down workover frequency
Driving down well workover frequency – key to extending field life and minimise operating costs
Workover costs are a significant portion of Australis operating budget.
Workover frequency has been a key focus for the operations team over past 7 years to extend
completion run times before intervention is necessary
The results have been dramatic, as can be seen in the chart
In 2023 the average time since the last
intervention on the 10 wells worked over
was 885 days.
7
TMS Asset Description
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE IN THE US
8
The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale History & entry case
Australis believes that the TMS is one of the last discovered, delineated but undeveloped quality unconventional oil
play remaining in the Lower 48.
Large depositional area in Louisiana and Mississippi
Historically well known as a source rock with multiple associated conventional developments
in area
First tested as an unconventional opportunity in ~2010 with variable results
Continued appraisal activity defined a relatively small part of the overall play where consistent
results indicated oil productivity on par with the best parts of much more established plays
Drilling activities showed clear progress in costs and execution efficiency – by 2019 D&C $/ft
were on par with the Delaware Basin
Oil price drop in 2014 created opportunity for Australis with incumbent participants all
requiring debt restructuring or bankruptcy filings
Australis targeted TMS because
− Core area results indicated tier 1 well productivity
− A low entry cost (due to an uncompetitive environment) equated to a minimal finding
cost
− Lack of competition and field rules allowed a material contiguous position, entirely
within the delineated core to be built
− Not exploration, a low-risk exposure with compelling base case economics and
significant layered upside
9
Australis TMS Asset
The TMS has all of the key attributes necessary for an attractive full field development
A delineated but undeveloped quality oil play is very scarce onshore in the USA
Existing established unconventional oil plays are increasingly mature – quality future drilling
locations harder to find or tightly held
Key attributes ensure play attractive
Proved oil deliverability over a long-time frame to define decline curves on par with
established plays.
Proximity to infrastructure and markets.
Proactive regulatory environment and consolidated acreage ideal for full field development.
Low royalty rates improve well economics.
Early in optimisation process provides multiple routes to further upside.
89 MMbbls mid case recoverable estimate from existing position.
Ability to rapidly scale this position and first mover advantage.
10
Strategic Position with Scale in TMS Core – Q1 2024
Australis controls the core area and is largest lease holder in the play
Large contiguous land position in the TMS Core with ~58,700 net acres (none on federal
lands) providing strategic control and operational benefits.
−
Limits new entrants acquiring large blocks in Core.
−
ATS has unique experience in leasing and accumulated an invaluable land database.
Ideal geography in Gulf of Mexico, with proximity to midstream infrastructure and
refineries (<50 miles)
Development flexibility – large production units, favourable field rules and opportunity
to take new 5 year leases
Significant inventory - 200 net well locations
TMS Asset Profile
Mississippi and Louisiana, USA
Net Acres
~58,700
(39,900 HBP)
Producing
Wells
31 operated
17 non-operated
Net well
locations
~200
Opportunity to grow acreage position - additional 100,000 acres has been identified;
Australis positioned to act swiftly to implement a focused leasing campaign
Acreage Expiry Profile
31 March 2024
11
Industry Dynamics
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE IN THE US
12
Recent Trends in US Onshore E&P
After a period of Capital Discipline and consolidation, when will US Operators look outside of their existing assets?
Capital Discipline & Shareholder return – the industry has successfully adopted this change in business strategy
Operators continue to maximise efficiencies within their existing Plays through improved completion design,
longer laterals, refrac techniques and EOR
Maturing plays & declining inventory - this manifests itself as the decline in productivity of primary oil plays
which in turn makes capital discipline harder to achieve
Consolidation is accelerating – this addresses inventory issues and synergies to achieve incremental capital
discipline. But this is a redistribution, not new inventory.
Operators starting to look at Exploration & New plays
− Step Out of same play – perceived as lower risk
− Certain operators have commenced some limited exploration or revisiting passed over plays
− But operators will not be initially rewarded by shareholders or the market
13
Capital Discipline – Reinvestment Rate vs F&D cost
Public companies focus solely on shareholder returns.
Reinvestment rates are lower
Production maintenance at minimum cost.
Maximise existing inventory and asset base (infill
drilling , Tier 2 locations, utilize DUCs and EOR)
Operational & cost efficiencies (longer laterals &
completion design)
Finding & Development Costs are rising
Reserve Replacement Rate is falling
Inventory replacement driven by consolidation
and technology improvement only.
With no new quality inventory, industry F&D
costs are rising.
Source: RBN “E&P Shareholder Returns Stall Despite Higher Cash Flows As Caution Prevails” Aug 2023
14
Well Performance is declining
Average Well productivity is declining in the largest oil basin – The Permian (Delaware & Midland)
2014 TMS
well
performance
Analysis from Novilabs shows productivity change in the two top counties of the Delaware Basin (Lea & Eddy) and
the Midland Basin (Midland & Martin).
All four counties have declined by between -12% and -20%.
2014 average TMS well performance was 143,000 bbls in the first 6 months.
Source: Novilabs report
15
Consolidation Occurring in Established Basins
A very significant period of consolidation in the established onshore plays with over US$100bn in the Permian alone
Date
Acquiror
Target
Basin
US$Billion
Oct 2023
ExxonMobil
Pioneer Natural Resources
Permian
$64.5
Feb 2024
Diamondback Energy
Endeavor Energy Resources
Permian
$26.0
Dec 2023
Occidental Petroleum
CrownRock
Permian
$12.0
Jan 2024
Chesapeake Energy
Southwestern Energy
Haynesville/Marcellus
$11.5
Jan 2024
APA Corp
Callon Petroleum
Permian
$4.5
Aug 2023
Permian Resources
Earthstone Energy
Permian
$4.5
Feb 2024
Chord Energy
Enerplus
Bakken
$3.9
Consolidation within the established plays motivated by
− Adding to depleting drilling inventory
− Materiality (Market Capitalisation & Production)
− Generate operational efficiencies
In most cases, post consolidation,
− Capital budgets reduced (less than combined)
− Development activity reduced & Production targets flat
Source: Company announcements & Rystad Energy, April 2024
16
Consolidation Occurring in Established Basins
Example - Diamondback’s $26 Billion acquisition of Endeavor Resources
2014 TMS Avg:
21,400 bbl/1,000 ft
With most of the consolidation being completed in mature oil basins like the Permian,
Operators that need to add premium drilling inventory will start to look for other
opportunities – the oil productivity of the TMS is undeniable
Source: Novilabs “Diamondback-Endeavor Merger: Inventory Growth and Production Insights” Feb 2024 & Company announcements
17
Industry exploration and re-appraisal activity
There have been recent indications of some public companies either appraising the fringes of existing plays or
reassessing areas that have been passed over historically
Examples of publicly disclosed activities include
− EOG and others announcing their large position in the oil window of the Utica shale
− The testing & appraisal of deeper horizons in the Permian for additional development
opportunities.
− A number of companies evaluating the northern fringe of the Midland basin with mixed
results to date.
− Continental drilling exploration wells in deeper targets an effort to extend the southern
Delaware with encouraging results.
“The Permian has been the focal point for M&A activity in recent times, but that focus is waning as available assets in the basin
become scarce. But with the appetite still strong, deal hungry players are looking outside the basin for acquisitions. A power shift
could be on the cards, with non-Permian assets taking centre stage in the future North American deals pipeline.” Atul Raina, VP
upstream research, Rystad Energy, April 2024.
“What we’ll need in the future is what I’ll say is Generation 3, That’s to deal with the tough rock that contains a lot of things that
heretofore we weren’t able to produce, and also to get more out of the Generation 1 and 2 rock.” Harold Hamm, Executive
Chairman Continental Resources, Nov 23
“Deals at the start of 2024 were driven by the same factors that led to last year’s marathon of mergers, foremost among
them a desire to lock up high-quality inventory when it is available,” said Andrew Dittmar, a principal analyst at
Enverus, April 2024.
18
Update on Business
Development
19
Australis strategy
The business strategy for Australis has been consistent since IPO
2016 - 2019
2020 - present
Secure a material position in a
quality US unconventional oil
play
Repackage asset and secure a
partner to fund further field
activity to demonstrate
underlying value
Seek to monetise value for
shareholders through
development or an exit
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Australis has had perhaps our busiest year since COVID with our BD efforts.
The potential partners have ranged from large public E&P companies, to private companies typically PE
backed or family owned and several financially orientated investment vehicles.
We have executed a number of confidentiality agreements and on multiple occasions carried out detailed due
diligence
About 1/3 of these engagements have been revisits.
The reasons given for not closing range from
− Corporate portfolio issues
− Timing
− Risk/reward profile
− There have been very few technical issues raised following diligence.
20
Summary
Although it has taken patience as time frames have extended, Australis is in a unique position to create value
2023 Results
Fiscal
Production
277,000bbls
Netback $7.5mm
EBITDA $1.0mm
EHS
0 Lost Time
Incidents
1 Minor
Reportable Spills
0.067 mt
CO2e/boe
Asset
Industry
•
~59,000 net acres (200 net locations) with material upside linked to Core acreage leasing
•
Comparable Tier 1 productivity to the well established plays, despite early stage play status
•
89 MMbbl 2P+2C recoverable oil (39 – 41 API)
•
Low royalties with supportive field rules for development
•
Infrastructure capacity and access
•
Increasing maturity & consolidation of established plays
•
Forcing inventory deficient companies to consider alternative early stage plays
21
Footnotes
1.
All estimates and risk factors taken from Ryder Scott, report prepared as at 31 December 2023 and generated for the Australis concessions to SPE
standards. See ASX announcement released on 31 January 2024 titled “Activities Report and Tear End Reserves Update”. Australis is not aware of any new
information or data that materially affects the information included in the referenced announcement and all the material assumptions and technical
parameters underpinning the estimates in the original announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. Ryder Scott generated their
independent reserve and contingent resource estimates using a deterministic method which is based on a qualitative assessment of relative uncertainty
using consistent interpretation guidelines. The independent engineers using a deterministic incremental (risk based) approach estimate the quantities at
each level of uncertainty discretely and separately.
2.
Updated PDP NPV(10) of US$47 million uses the PhDWin model created by Ryder Scott for the PDP year end 2023 estimates1 with an oil price assumption
based on the average price for the first day of the preceding 12 months of US$79.51, consistent with both SPE and ASX guidelines. Australis is not aware
of any new information or data that materially affects them. The PDP NPV(10) reflects project economics only and does not include the effects of existing
or future hedging.
22
Glossary
Unit
Measure
Unit
Measure
B
Prefix - Billions
bbl
Barrel of oil
MM or mm
Prefix - Millions
boe
Barrel of oil equivalent (1bbl = 6 mscf)
M or m
Prefix - Thousands
scf
Standard cubic foot of gas
/d
Abbreviation
TMS
TMS Core
Suffix - per day
Bcf
Billion standard cubic foot of gas
Description
Abbreviation Description
Tuscaloosa Marine Shale
D, C & T
Drilling, Completion, Tie in and Artificial Lift
The Australis designated productive core area of the TMS EBITDA
Net loss / profit for the period before income tax expense or
delineated by production history
benefit, finance costs, depreciation, depletion, amortisation and
WI
Working Interest
impairment provision
C
Contingent Resources – 1C/2C/3C – low/most likely/high Net Acres
Working Interest before deduction of Royalty Interests
NRI
Net Revenue Interest (after royalty)
IP24
The peak oil production rate over 24 hours of production
Net
Working Interest after deduction of Royalty Interests
TMS Type
The history matched production performance of 14 wells drilled
NPV (10)
Net Present Value (discount rate), before income tax
Curve
in the TMS by Encana in 2014. Corresponds to an average
HBP
Held by Production (lease obligations met)
treated horizontal length of 7,200ft.
EUR
Estimated Ultimate Recovery per well
IRR
Internal Rate of Return
WTI
West Texas Intermediate Oil Benchmark Price
NPT
Non Productive Time
LLS
Louisiana Light Sweet Oil Benchmark Price
Reinvestment Percentage of free cash flow used for asset development
Opex
Operating Costs
Rate
operations
Capex
Capital Costs
F&D Cost
The cost to find and develop a boe of reserve
PDP
Proved Developed Producing
Replacement
Non M&A reserve replacement rate
PUD
Proved Undeveloped Producing
Rate
2P
Proved plus Probable Reserves
3P
Proved plus Probable plus Possible Reserves
EOR
Enhanced Oil Recovery
G&A
General & Administrative
Royalty Interest Interest in a leasehold area providing the holder with the
right to receive a share of production associated with the
or Royalty
leasehold area
Field Netback
Oil and gas sales net of royalties, production and state
taxes, inventory movements, field based production
expenses, hedging gains or losses but excludes depletion
and depreciation.
23
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